It’s been about 7 years since I last wrote about the economics of solar eclipses. A lot has changed since then, but one thing remains constant: eclipses are a big deal.
This year, an estimated 5 million people will travel in the US to see the April 8th, 2024 total solar eclipse, and that number doesn’t include the tens of millions of people who live in viewing range already. Along the path of totality, which stretches from central Mexico and Texas up through Toronto and Montreal, towns big and small are preparing for a massive uptick in tourists. Sold-out hotels and Airbnbs, rental cars and Turos, and the lucrative promise of tourist revenue mark the landscape. Music festivals, educational events, and at least one mass wedding in Russellville, Arkansas are all being organized to mark the special occasion; the continental US won’t see another total eclipse until more than 20 years from now.
Nowadays, the rise of dynamic pricing means many of these travelers are shelling out substantially more during the eclipse period. A round-trip Main Class flight from San Francisco, CA to Austin, TX was less than $400 a year before the eclipse. After one day, the price shot up to $1,500+ on some airlines. One week before the eclipse, last-minute travelers face a very hefty $2,000+ bill for airfare alone, with most reasonable flight times fully sold out. The same is true for hotels, rental cars, park reservations, and other limited-space events and services. All of this adds up to a potential $1 Billion boost to local economies, including many areas that aren’t normally spring break destinations.
Marketing teams are getting in on the fun as well. Thematically-appropriate brands like SunChips and MoonPie are capitalizing on the opportunity with limited-edition snacks (in the case of SunChips, the “drop” will only be available during totality, reflecting the modern appeal of time-limited exclusivity to consolidate demand). Sales are also booming at American Paper Optics and Thousand Oaks Optical as millions of solar glasses are snapped up by ordinary consumers instead of their normal clientele of science classrooms. Compared to 7 years ago, eclipse glasses prices are more stable (a pack of 50 glasses that sold for $50 a few months before the eclipse is only up to $65 a few days before — a decent 30% increase, but nothing like the 1400% markups seen in the last eclipse).
Even if you have all the accommodations and limited-edition snacks lined up, there’s still the question of visibility. Some of the most ardent eclipse chasers will book out multiple locations on the path of totality, choosing where to drive or fly last-minute based on the weather forecast the day before: clouds and bad weather can obscure totality. Airlines are now offering special “eclipse” flights as another enterprising solution, with flight paths and planes chosen to maximize time in totality while soaring far above the clouds.
7 years later, the ubiquity of sharing economy startups, proliferation of dynamic strategy, and memories of the 2017 eclipse have created a lot of promising opportunity for big businesses and local residents alike. No matter how the eclipse turns out on Monday, tens of millions of people will spend billions this weekend for a chance to gaze upon a celestial spectacle together.
Andrew Jabara 